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NARX closeloop for prediction: how to select the input

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Ilaria Di Fresco
Ilaria Di Fresco el 2 de Nov. de 2015
Cerrada: MATLAB Answer Bot el 20 de Ag. de 2021
I am using the NARX Neural Network for predicting the wind speed. I have the hourly historical value of the temperature, pressure and wind direction (my INPUT) for the last 5 years and the same for the wind speed data (my TARGET).
I designed an open loop with the following input and target:
inputOL=X(1:end-prediction_horizon)
targetOL=T(1:end-prediction_horizon)
Then, I designed a closed loop (trained using inputOL and targetOL).
My question is: which is the input series that I should use in order to predict my target multistep ahead?
I read several answers which used:
inputCL=X(end-prediction_horizon+1:end) %used as input of the netc
targetCL=T(end-prediction_horizon+1:end) %used to compare the performance of the netc
But, THIS SOLUTION IS NOT APPLICABLE TO MY PROBLEM BECAUSE, IN THE REALITY, I CANNOT KNOW THE FUTURE INPUT AS I DON'T KNOW TH FUTURE TARGET.
Thus, I tried to use the LAST VALUES KNOWN OF THE INPUT:
newinput=X(end-2*prediction_horizon+1:end-prediction_horizon)
IS IT CORRECT?
DO I NEED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE DELAY,TOO?
DOES THE prediction_horizon NEEDTO BE EQUAL TO THE DELAY?
Thanks, Cheers
Ilaria

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