Problem 1959. German tank problem

Created by Alfonso Nieto-Castanon

Solve Later

{"parts":[{"partUri":"/matlab/document.xml","contentType":"application/vnd.mathworks.matlab.code.document+xml","content":"<?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\"?><w:document xmlns:w=\"http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/wordprocessingml/2006/main\"><w:body><w:p><w:pPr><w:pStyle w:val=\"text\"/><w:jc w:val=\"left\"/></w:pPr><w:r><w:t>The</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:hyperlink w:docLocation=\"\"><w:r><w:t>German tank problem</w:t></w:r></w:hyperlink><w:r><w:t> is a well-known statistical problem that attempts to estimate the maximum of a discrete distribution from a limited number of samples (you may know it from some of its</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:hyperlink w:docLocation=\"\"><w:r><w:t>far reaching implications</w:t></w:r></w:hyperlink><w:r><w:t>...)</w:t></w:r></w:p><w:p><w:pPr><w:pStyle w:val=\"text\"/><w:jc w:val=\"left\"/></w:pPr><w:r><w:t>You do not know how many tanks are in circulation (let's call this number</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:r><w:rPr><w:b/></w:rPr><w:t>N</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t>), but you know that they have been assigned serial numbers sequentially starting at 1 (ranging from 1 to N). You manage to observe a random subset of</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:r><w:rPr><w:b/></w:rPr><w:t>k</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> tanks, and find that, among the observed tanks, the maximum serial number is</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:r><w:rPr><w:b/></w:rPr><w:t>n</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t>. Your job is to predict</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:r><w:rPr><w:b/></w:rPr><w:t>N</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t>, the total number of tanks in circulation, from this observation alone (from the values of</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:r><w:rPr><w:b/></w:rPr><w:t>k</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> and</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:r><w:rPr><w:b/></w:rPr><w:t>n</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t>).</w:t></w:r></w:p><w:p><w:pPr><w:pStyle w:val=\"text\"/><w:jc w:val=\"left\"/></w:pPr><w:r><w:rPr><w:b/></w:rPr><w:t>Example:</w:t></w:r></w:p><w:p><w:pPr><w:pStyle w:val=\"text\"/><w:jc w:val=\"left\"/></w:pPr><w:r><w:t>You observe the serial number of 3 tanks, which are 36, 77, and 28. You know that there must be</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:r><w:rPr><w:i/></w:rPr><w:t>at least</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> 77 tanks in circulation (although it seems unlikely that there were</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:r><w:rPr><w:i/></w:rPr><w:t>only</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> 77). What is your best estimate of the total number of tanks in circulation?</w:t></w:r></w:p><w:p><w:pPr><w:pStyle w:val=\"text\"/><w:jc w:val=\"left\"/></w:pPr><w:r><w:rPr><w:b/></w:rPr><w:t>Details:</w:t></w:r></w:p><w:p><w:pPr><w:pStyle w:val=\"text\"/><w:jc w:val=\"left\"/></w:pPr><w:r><w:t>Your function takes the values</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:r><w:rPr><w:b/></w:rPr><w:t>n</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> and</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:r><w:rPr><w:b/></w:rPr><w:t>k</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> and must return your best estimate of the value of</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:r><w:rPr><w:b/></w:rPr><w:t>N</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t>.</w:t></w:r></w:p><w:p><w:pPr><w:pStyle w:val=\"text\"/><w:jc w:val=\"left\"/></w:pPr><w:r><w:t>To pass this problem you must be</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> </w:t></w:r><w:r><w:rPr><w:b/></w:rPr><w:t>exactly correct</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> in at least 10% of the testsuite cases.</w:t></w:r></w:p><w:p><w:pPr><w:pStyle w:val=\"text\"/><w:jc w:val=\"left\"/></w:pPr><w:r><w:t>Test suite checks 10,000 cases, with N values ranging from 10 to 100, and k values ranging from 1 to 10.</w:t></w:r></w:p><w:p><w:pPr><w:pStyle w:val=\"text\"/><w:jc w:val=\"left\"/></w:pPr><w:r><w:rPr><w:b/></w:rPr><w:t>Hints:</w:t></w:r><w:r><w:t> (why my solution is not working? this formula is on wikipedia!!!)</w:t></w:r></w:p><w:p><w:pPr><w:pStyle w:val=\"text\"/><w:jc w:val=\"left\"/></w:pPr><w:r><w:t>In a typical scenario you may not really care about being \"exactly correct\" in at least 10% of all possible cases (i.e. with relatively high likelihood). This problem is intended to have you thinking about frequentist approaches, Bayesian, and maximum likelihood estimators</w:t></w:r></w:p></w:body></w:document>","relationship":null}],"relationships":[{"relationshipType":"http://schemas.mathworks.com/matlab/code/2013/relationships/document","target":"/matlab/document.xml","relationshipId":"rId1"}]}

<div style = "text-align: start; line-height: 20.4333px; min-height: 0px; white-space: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Menlo, Monaco, Consolas, monospace; font-style: normal; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: rgb(0, 0, 0); white-space: normal; "><div style="block-size: 459px; display: block; min-width: 0px; padding-block-start: 0px; padding-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 407px 229.5px; transform-origin: 407px 229.5px; vertical-align: baseline; "><div style="block-size: 42px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-block-end: 9px; margin-block-start: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-inline-end: 10px; margin-inline-start: 4px; margin-left: 4px; margin-right: 10px; margin-top: 2px; perspective-origin: 384px 21px; text-align: left; transform-origin: 384px 21px; white-space: pre-wrap; margin-left: 4px; margin-top: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-right: 10px; "><span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 12.5px 8px; transform-origin: 12.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">The<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <a target='_blank' href = "/#null">German tank problem</a><span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 273px 8px; transform-origin: 273px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> is a well-known statistical problem that attempts to estimate the maximum of a discrete distribution from a limited number of samples (you may know it from some of its<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <a target='_blank' href = "/#null">far reaching implications</a><span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 8.5px 8px; transform-origin: 8.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">...)</div><div style="block-size: 84px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-block-end: 9px; margin-block-start: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-inline-end: 10px; margin-inline-start: 4px; margin-left: 4px; margin-right: 10px; margin-top: 2px; perspective-origin: 384px 42px; text-align: left; transform-origin: 384px 42px; white-space: pre-wrap; margin-left: 4px; margin-top: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-right: 10px; "><span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 227px 8px; transform-origin: 227px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">You do not know how many tanks are in circulation (let's call this number<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 5px 8px; transform-origin: 5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">N<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 145.5px 8px; transform-origin: 145.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">), but you know that they have been assigned serial numbers sequentially starting at 1 (ranging from 1 to N). You manage to observe a random subset of<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 4px 8px; transform-origin: 4px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">k<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 37px 8px; transform-origin: 37px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> tanks, and find that, among the observed tanks, the maximum serial number is<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 4.5px 8px; transform-origin: 4.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">n<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 68.5px 8px; transform-origin: 68.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">. Your job is to predict<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 5px 8px; transform-origin: 5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">N<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 91.5px 8px; transform-origin: 91.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">, the total number of tanks in circulation, from this observation alone (from the values of<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 4px 8px; transform-origin: 4px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">k<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 14px 8px; transform-origin: 14px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> and<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 4.5px 8px; transform-origin: 4.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">n<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 4.5px 8px; transform-origin: 4.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">).</div><div style="block-size: 21px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-block-end: 9px; margin-block-start: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-inline-end: 10px; margin-inline-start: 4px; margin-left: 4px; margin-right: 10px; margin-top: 2px; perspective-origin: 384px 10.5px; text-align: left; transform-origin: 384px 10.5px; white-space: pre-wrap; margin-left: 4px; margin-top: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-right: 10px; "><span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 31.5px 8px; transform-origin: 31.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">Example:</div><div style="block-size: 63px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-block-end: 9px; margin-block-start: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-inline-end: 10px; margin-inline-start: 4px; margin-left: 4px; margin-right: 10px; margin-top: 2px; perspective-origin: 384px 31.5px; text-align: left; transform-origin: 384px 31.5px; white-space: pre-wrap; margin-left: 4px; margin-top: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-right: 10px; "><span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 305px 8px; transform-origin: 305px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">You observe the serial number of 3 tanks, which are 36, 77, and 28. You know that there must be<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 23px 8px; transform-origin: 23px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">at least<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 38.5px 8px; transform-origin: 38.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> 77 tanks in circulation (although it seems unlikely that there were<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 13px 8px; transform-origin: 13px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">only<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 198px 8px; transform-origin: 198px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> 77). What is your best estimate of the total number of tanks in circulation?</div><div style="block-size: 21px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-block-end: 9px; margin-block-start: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-inline-end: 10px; margin-inline-start: 4px; margin-left: 4px; margin-right: 10px; margin-top: 2px; perspective-origin: 384px 10.5px; text-align: left; transform-origin: 384px 10.5px; white-space: pre-wrap; margin-left: 4px; margin-top: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-right: 10px; "><span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 26px 8px; transform-origin: 26px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">Details:</div><div style="block-size: 21px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-block-end: 9px; margin-block-start: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-inline-end: 10px; margin-inline-start: 4px; margin-left: 4px; margin-right: 10px; margin-top: 2px; perspective-origin: 384px 10.5px; text-align: left; transform-origin: 384px 10.5px; white-space: pre-wrap; margin-left: 4px; margin-top: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-right: 10px; "><span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 95px 8px; transform-origin: 95px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">Your function takes the values<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 4.5px 8px; transform-origin: 4.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">n<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 14px 8px; transform-origin: 14px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> and<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 4px 8px; transform-origin: 4px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">k<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 159px 8px; transform-origin: 159px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> and must return your best estimate of the value of<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 5px 8px; transform-origin: 5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">N<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">.</div><div style="block-size: 21px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-block-end: 9px; margin-block-start: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-inline-end: 10px; margin-inline-start: 4px; margin-left: 4px; margin-right: 10px; margin-top: 2px; perspective-origin: 384px 10.5px; text-align: left; transform-origin: 384px 10.5px; white-space: pre-wrap; margin-left: 4px; margin-top: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-right: 10px; "><span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 105.5px 8px; transform-origin: 105.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">To pass this problem you must be<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 2px 8px; transform-origin: 2px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> <span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 52px 8px; transform-origin: 52px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">exactly correct<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 119.5px 8px; transform-origin: 119.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> in at least 10% of the testsuite cases.</div><div style="block-size: 21px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-block-end: 9px; margin-block-start: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-inline-end: 10px; margin-inline-start: 4px; margin-left: 4px; margin-right: 10px; margin-top: 2px; perspective-origin: 384px 10.5px; text-align: left; transform-origin: 384px 10.5px; white-space: pre-wrap; margin-left: 4px; margin-top: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-right: 10px; "><span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 329.5px 8px; transform-origin: 329.5px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">Test suite checks 10,000 cases, with N values ranging from 10 to 100, and k values ranging from 1 to 10.</div><div style="block-size: 21px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-block-end: 9px; margin-block-start: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-inline-end: 10px; margin-inline-start: 4px; margin-left: 4px; margin-right: 10px; margin-top: 2px; perspective-origin: 384px 10.5px; text-align: left; transform-origin: 384px 10.5px; white-space: pre-wrap; margin-left: 4px; margin-top: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-right: 10px; "><span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 20px 8px; transform-origin: 20px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">Hints:<span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 199px 8px; transform-origin: 199px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; "> (why my solution is not working? this formula is on wikipedia!!!)</div><div style="block-size: 63px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-block-end: 9px; margin-block-start: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-inline-end: 10px; margin-inline-start: 4px; margin-left: 4px; margin-right: 10px; margin-top: 2px; perspective-origin: 384px 31.5px; text-align: left; transform-origin: 384px 31.5px; white-space: pre-wrap; margin-left: 4px; margin-top: 2px; margin-bottom: 9px; margin-right: 10px; "><span style="block-size: auto; display: inline; margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; perspective-origin: 374px 8px; transform-origin: 374px 8px; unicode-bidi: normal; ">In a typical scenario you may not really care about being "exactly correct" in at least 10% of all possible cases (i.e. with relatively high likelihood). This problem is intended to have you thinking about frequentist approaches, Bayesian, and maximum likelihood estimators</div></div></div>

The German tank problem is a well-known statistical problem that attempts to estimate the maximum of a discrete distribution from a limited number of samples (you may know it from some of its far reaching implications...)
You do not know how many tanks are in circulation (let's call this number N), but you know that they have been assigned serial numbers sequentially starting at 1 (ranging from 1 to N). You manage to observe a random subset of k tanks, and find that, among the observed tanks, the maximum serial number is n. Your job is to predict N, the total number of tanks in circulation, from this observation alone (from the values of k and n).
Example:
You observe the serial number of 3 tanks, which are 36, 77, and 28. You know that there must be at least 77 tanks in circulation (although it seems unlikely that there were only 77). What is your best estimate of the total number of tanks in circulation?
Details:
Your function takes the values n and k and must return your best estimate of the value of N.
To pass this problem you must be exactly correct in at least 10% of the testsuite cases.
Test suite checks 10,000 cases, with N values ranging from 10 to 100, and k values ranging from 1 to 10.
Hints: (why my solution is not working? this formula is on wikipedia!!!)
In a typical scenario you may not really care about being "exactly correct" in at least 10% of all possible cases (i.e. with relatively high likelihood). This problem is intended to have you thinking about frequentist approaches, Bayesian, and maximum likelihood estimators

Solve

Solution Stats

281 Solutions
27 Solvers

Last Solution submitted on Apr 26, 2023

Last 200 Solutions

Problem Comments

1 Comment

1 Comment

Jean-Marie Sainthillier on 1 Mar 2014

I'll believe it when I see it.
St Thomas.

Solution Comments

Show comments

Problem Recent Solvers27

Problem Tags

Community Treasure Hunt

Find the treasures in MATLAB Central and discover how the community can help you!

Start Hunting!

Problem 1959. German tank problem

Solution Stats

Last 200 Solutions

Problem Comments

Solution Comments

Problem Recent Solvers27

Suggested Problems

More from this Author38

Problem Tags

Community Treasure Hunt

Problem 1959. German tank problem

Solution Stats

Last 200 Solutions

Problem Comments

Solution Comments

Problem Recent Solvers27

Suggested Problems

More from this Author38

Problem Tags

Community Treasure Hunt

Players