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Analysis of covariance is a technique for analyzing grouped data having a response (y, the variable to be predicted) and a predictor (x, the variable used to do the prediction). Using analysis of covariance, you can model y as a linear function of x, with the coefficients of the line possibly varying from group to group.
The aoctool
function opens
an interactive graphical environment for fitting and prediction with
analysis of covariance (ANOCOVA) models. It fits the following models
for the ith group:
Same mean | y = α + ε |
Separate means | y = (α + α_{i}) + ε |
Same line | y = α + βx + ε |
Parallel lines | y = (α + α_{i}) + βx + ε |
Separate lines | y = (α + α_{i}) + (β + β_{i})x + ε |
For example, in the parallel lines model the intercept varies from one group to the next, but the slope is the same for each group. In the same mean model, there is a common intercept and no slope. In order to make the group coefficients well determined, the tool imposes the constraints
$$\sum {\alpha}_{j}={\displaystyle \sum {\beta}_{j}=0}$$
The following steps describe the use of aoctool
.
Load the data. The Statistics and Machine
Learning Toolbox™ data
set carsmall.mat
contains information on cars from
the years 1970, 1976, and 1982. This example studies the relationship
between the weight of a car and its mileage, and whether this relationship
has changed over the years. To start the demonstration, load the data
set.
load carsmall
The Workspace Browser shows the variables in the data set.
You can also use aoctool
with your own data.
Start the tool. The
following command calls aoctool
to fit a separate
line to the column vectors Weight
and MPG
for
each of the three model group defined in Model_Year
.
The initial fit models the y variable, MPG
,
as a linear function of the x variable, Weight
.
[h,atab,ctab,stats] = aoctool(Weight,MPG,Model_Year);
See the aoctool
function
reference page for detailed information about calling aoctool
.
Examine the output. The
graphical output consists of a main window with a plot, a table of
coefficient estimates, and an analysis of variance table. In the plot,
each Model_Year
group has a separate line. The
data points for each group are coded with the same color and symbol,
and the fit for each group has the same color as the data points.
The coefficients of the three lines appear in the figure titled ANOCOVA Coefficients. You can see that the slopes are roughly –0.0078, with a small deviation for each group:
Model year 1970: y = (45.9798 – 8.5805) + (–0.0078 + 0.002)x + ε
Model year 1976: y = (45.9798 – 3.8902) + (–0.0078 + 0.0011)x + ε
Model year 1982: y = (45.9798 + 12.4707) + (–0.0078 – 0.0031)x + ε
Because the three fitted lines have slopes that are roughly
similar, you may wonder if they really are the same. The Model_Year*Weight
interaction
expresses the difference in slopes, and the ANOVA table shows a test
for the significance of this term. With an F statistic
of 5.23 and a p value of 0.0072, the slopes are
significantly different.
Constrain the
slopes to be the same. To examine the fits when the slopes
are constrained to be the same, return to the ANOCOVA Prediction Plot
window and use the Model pop-up menu to
select a Parallel Lines
model. The window
updates to show the following graph.
Though this fit looks reasonable, it is significantly worse
than the Separate Lines
model. Use the Model pop-up
menu again to return to the original model.
The example in Analysis of Covariance Tool provides estimates of the relationship
between MPG
and Weight
for each Model_Year
,
but how accurate are these estimates? To find out, you can superimpose
confidence bounds on the fits by examining them one group at a time.
In the Model_Year menu
at the lower right of the figure, change the setting from All Groups
to 82. The data
and fits for the other groups are dimmed, and confidence bounds appear
around the 82 fit.
The dashed lines form an envelope around the fitted line for
model year 82. Under the assumption that the true
relationship is linear, these bounds provide a 95% confidence region
for the true line. Note that the fits for the other model years are
well outside these confidence bounds for Weight
values
between 2000
and 3000
.
Sometimes it is more valuable to be
able to predict the response value for a new observation, not just
estimate the average response value. Use the aoctool
function Bounds menu
to change the definition of the confidence bounds from Line
to Observation
.
The resulting wider intervals reflect the uncertainty in the parameter
estimates as well as the randomness of a new observation.
Like the polytool
function,
the aoctool
function has cross hairs that you can
use to manipulate the Weight
and watch the estimate
and confidence bounds along the y-axis update.
These values appear only when a single group is selected, not when All
Groups
is selected.
You can perform a multiple comparison test by using the stats
output
structure from aoctool
as input to the multcompare
function. The multcompare
function
can test either slopes, intercepts, or population marginal means (the
predicted MPG of the mean weight for each group). The example in Analysis of Covariance Tool shows that
the slopes are not all the same, but could it be that two are the
same and only the other one is different? You can test that hypothesis.
multcompare(stats,0.05,'on','','s') ans = 1.0000 2.0000 -0.0012 0.0008 0.0029 1.0000 3.0000 0.0013 0.0051 0.0088 2.0000 3.0000 0.0005 0.0042 0.0079
This matrix shows that the estimated difference between the intercepts of groups 1 and 2 (1970 and 1976) is 0.0008, and a confidence interval for the difference is [–0.0012, 0.0029]. There is no significant difference between the two. There are significant differences, however, between the intercept for 1982 and each of the other two. The graph shows the same information.
Note that the stats
structure was created
in the initial call to the aoctool
function, so
it is based on the initial model fit (typically a separate-lines model).
If you change the model interactively and want to base your multiple
comparisons on the new model, you need to run aoctool
again
to get another stats
structure, this time specifying
your new model as the initial model.