- Generate a cab of one color or the other with the appropriate probabilities.
- Get the color ID response from the witness with the appropriate probability.
- Record the actual cab color and the color ID response.
Iterate steps 1-3 10,000 times.
From the 10,000 iterations, select all the ones where the color ID response was blue. Say there are N of these.
Find out what proportion of those N times the actual cab color was blue.